Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0756
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 10 2025 12:09:43

ACUS11 KWNS 101209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101208=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-101415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0756
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle into far southeast AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101208Z - 101415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized tornado and wind-damage threat may spread
eastward this morning.

DISCUSSION...A persistent storm cluster with embedded supercells is
moving eastward this morning across the FL Panhandle, to the east of
a surface low near Mobile Bay. Occasional upticks in rotation have
been noted over the last hour as cells interact with a frontal zone
that is very gradually moving northward across the area. Some
additional northward progression of the front is possible through
the morning, aided by the onset of modest diurnal heating downstream
of ongoing convection. This would increase the area across the
peninsula where an organized severe threat could evolve over the
next 2-3 hours. A supercell currently south of Fort Walton Beach
could pose a threat if it moves onshore, and additional cell
development is possible within developing convection west of Panama
City.=20

Near and south of the front, favorable low-level moisture and
veering wind profiles (with effective SRH increasing above 100
m2/s2) will continue to support localized tornado and wind-damage
potential with any sustained supercells.

...Dean/Guyer.. 05/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_lDzdllUzb8AOgtdI-Hr5klyp0v6Ccfq65h2QY5wXf9M77VYlHAIpnzWWelo6PyjMGcJH8LN5=
4YNQqBBuaebAJl7WPs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30988675 31098553 30998502 30578490 30018483 29938486
            29758499 29538529 29608559 29758590 29898630 29988670
            30198700 30988675=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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