Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat May 10 2025 07:24:36 ACUS03 KWNS 100724 SWODY3 SPC AC 100723 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND WRN/CNTRL SOUTH CAROLINA... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ....Discussion... Within the amplified, split westerlies, one significant mid/upper trough is forecast to continue digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast during this period, downstream of a prominent ridge across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. It does appear that one or two smaller-scale perturbations emerging from this trough will accelerate northeastward across the northern U.S. Rockies into the Canadian Prairies, around the northwestern periphery of broad downstream ridging extending across the northern U.S. Great Plains through St. Lawrence Valley. In lower-levels, models indicate that deeper surface troughing will shift east of the Rockies into Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the Dakotas, while deepening southward through the southern high plains. However, destabilization near this feature is likely to be significantly inhibited by warm air aloft, and the lack of appreciable low-level moisture return due to the continuing presence of a broad mid/upper low initially centered across the lower Mississippi Valley. Cut off from the stronger westerlies, to the south of the broad mid-level ridging, movement of this low is likely to remain slow; however, models indicate that it will probably elongate north-northeastward across the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, while taking on a negative tilt east of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast. In lower levels, this may be accompanied by broad, weak surface troughing developing across much of the Southeast, as surface ridging slowly shifts east of the Atlantic Seaboard. ....Southeast... Differences exist among the various model output, but the gradient between the low-level ridging and troughing may continue to support a belt of modest southerly low-level flow (20-30+ kt around 850 mb) along a corridor roughly from the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont. It appears probable that this will coincide with a deep lower/mid-tropospheric moist plume emanating from the lower latitudes, beneath a belt of moderate to strong, difluent southwesterly high-level flow, perhaps contributing to an environment at least conditionally supportive of supercells with potential to produce tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ...Kerr.. 05/10/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .