Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat May 10 2025 05:52:53 ACUS01 KWNS 100551 SWODY1 SPC AC 100549 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast today, and the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon through the evening. ....Synopsis... A mid to upper-level low will meander over Louisiana today with troughing encompassing the western Gulf basin. In the low levels, a weak surface low is forecast to move northward and inland from the MS/AL coast, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. Farther west, a belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the southern Prairie Provinces, downstream of an eastward migrating trough forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest coast early Sunday morning. The higher-momentum flow is expected to glance the northern High Plains. ....FL into far southern GA/AL... A moist and moderately unstable air mass will exist south of the frontal zone. Scattered to numerous storms are forecast over parts of the Gulf extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during the day. A few of the stronger storms may organize given the veering wind profiles and sufficient effective shear. An isolated risk for all hazards may develop over the FL Panhandle during the day, while smaller hodographs farther south into the Peninsula will tend to favor mostly an isolated hail/wind farther south. ....MT/ID... Strong heating and orographic lift over southwest MT will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast MT during the evening. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon. Similar to farther north, steep lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores. ...Smith/Lyons.. 05/10/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .