Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0754
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 09 2025 18:30:01

ACUS11 KWNS 091829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091829=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-092000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0754
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025

Areas affected...central and eastern parts of the Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091829Z - 092000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong, damaging wind gusts and some large hail may
accompany the stronger storms initiating off of sea-breeze
boundaries this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...A cumulus field is deepening along the shoreline of the
eastern FL Peninsula with a developing, westward progressing
sea-breeze boundary, which should serve as the impetus for
convective initiation over the next couple of hours. These storms
are poised to develop atop a heated, well-mixed boundary layer,
characterized by 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates amid 70 F surface
dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. In addition
to adequate buoyancy supporting strong thunderstorm updrafts,
glancing stronger mid/upper-level flow to the north will support 30+
kts of effective bulk shear and some potential for storm
organization. Multicells are the expected mode of convection,
accompanied by strong wind gusts and perhaps some hail. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may be needed if widespread, intense convection
becomes apparent.

...Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/09/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8uP9F2KWnn16NVG1EmaPki4-ZlgU0Aq38jlz2B6OmYNoplnq69G61Nqgx3zqMmjV8XkINRZoa=
wbJ2UrtricrtLpjHOw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27098153 28348194 29218206 29878203 30608200 30808193
            30878170 30708145 29968132 29258100 28648064 27998044
            27318011 26898005 26658027 26678108 27098153=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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