Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 09 2025 00:16:03

AWUS01 KWNH 090015
FFGMPD
TXZ000-090345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0244
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 PM EDT Thu May 08 2025

Areas affected...southern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090012Z - 090345Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of southern TX with high rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr and
isolated totals of 3-5 inches over the next 2-4 hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery through 00Z showed an uptick in
thunderstorm coverage to the northwest of Corpus Christi across
the I-37 corridor where outflows were merging. Upstream, a pair of
thunderstorm clusters were advancing toward the ESE from the Rio
Grande between Eagle Pass and Laredo, co-located with an MCV-like
feature, as well as a cluster just east of I-35 near Cotulla. The
environment over southern TX was unstable with 500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE although pockets of CIN were present near the coast from
earlier storms via SPC mesoanalysis data.

It appears probable that lift out ahead of the east-southeastward
advancing circulation/convective clusters to the west and
divergent/diffluent flow aloft, will continue to encourage
convective development downstream. Following a general ESE motion
over the next 2-4 hours will support cell mergers and occasional
slow propagation which could support high rainfall rates of 2-3
in/hr and perhaps localized totals of 3-5 inches through ~04Z over
portions of southern TX. Due to relatively high FFG values across
southern TX, any flash flooding that develops would likely be tied
to impervious surfaces tied to towns/cities within the path of the
advancing clusters of heavy rain.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6KB8RRc3fnDIWuIC2LQoVX5D0kGRB3lGvSlUEWloEYUuAae8J6BPPBS64skxZMEN9VDh=
rHMH93A0OSkO0bOlOr8RvVc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   28999961 28779793 28609693 28279665 27789692=20
            26899732 26859836 26909945 27399975 27860010=20
            28160046 28590042=20

=3D =3D =3D
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