Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0749
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 08 2025 23:57:27

ACUS11 KWNS 082356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082355=20
TXZ000-090100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0749
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of south Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 082355Z - 090100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new small WW will be issued shortly. A cluster of storms
is expected to continue eastward toward the Texas coast with a risk
for hail and damaging winds this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 2355 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
cluster of severe storms ongoing near a diffuse front/modified
outflow boundary across portions of the Rio Grande Valley and South
TX. Recent radar trends and CAM guidance continue to suggest upscale
growth is likely with this cluster, and additional storms moving
over the River in the next few hours. The environment downstream
remains favorable for organized severe storms with moderate
instability and deep-layer shear. While some prior convection and
the coastal front have reduced temperatures near the immediate coast
somewhat, robust moisture (surface dewpoints in the 70s F) and steep
mid-level lapse rates will likely offset nocturnal stabilization
this evening. This suggest the threat for damaging winds and hail
may continue into the immediate coastal counties and offshore
tonight. Given the increasing severe threat, a small WW will be
issued shortly east of WW241.

...Lyons/Smith.. 05/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6_J1tnJAPygatvt1vMA73Yx5kyS4_crP8VnFbnq-llYgtyS8gz1g-ctqKydM00teSQAJt3GWq=
767Rs0VTFgB5tSKqLw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   27409873 28389885 28729866 28549758 28199693 27149724
            27039761 26819823 26919833 27409873=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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