Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0738
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 08 2025 12:57:37

ACUS11 KWNS 081256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081256=20
FLZ000-081430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0738
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 081256Z - 081430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms possible this morning.

DISCUSSION...Convection has increased this morning near a weak
confluence zone across parts of the FL Panhandle and adjacent
waters, and weak rotation has been noted with cells near and
northeast of Panama City.=20

In the absence of more robust large-scale ascent, the extent to
which the ongoing convection can strengthen and be sustained is
uncertain. However, relatively rich low-level moisture, MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg, and moderate deep-layer shear will support potential
for organized storms through the morning. Isolated damaging wind and
hail would likely be the primary threats, though a brief tornado
cannot be ruled out.

...Dean/Guyer.. 05/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8-i8fyGmDSi1y_A0pEgMhuoFhA-soxdiVXohMwxc3cBXkh_ILd7TKHT05RVBuG_BHRttB40GV=
qGpgwzA7Fc-GPnjS0s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   29938549 30438500 30458423 30298379 29948357 29658359
            29478394 29418431 29588524 29938549=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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