Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0731
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 07 2025 03:22:58

ACUS11 KWNS 070322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070322=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0731
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...parts of sern MS...swrn AL...wrn FL PNHDL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 070322Z - 070515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...There still appears potential for convection to become
better organized and intensify through Midnight-2 AM CDT,
accompanied by an increase in potential for strong to severe surface
gusts.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development is generally being
maintained within a broader area of convection, which continues to
spread eastward with large-forcing for ascent across the lower
Mississippi Valley.  One relatively broad cyclonic mesoscale
circulation remains evident near a clustering of persistent strong
convection, now near a remnant weak baroclinic zone east of Natchez
MS.  There still appears potential for this circulation to
strengthen along the thermal gradient, particularly as long as
south/southeasterly updraft inflow continues to emanate from a moist
low-level environment characterized by sizable CAPE.  This appears
to extend as far east as the Florida Panhandle.  03Z surface
observations suggest that convection may be contributing to a
notable surface pressure perturbation, with 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface
pressure rises sampled at Greenwood, Jackson, Brookhaven County
Airport MS and Baton Rouge LA, and much weaker rises to weak falls
downstream.

...Kerr/Smith.. 05/07/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_Qd3RfX-nZAo0YZ6OcIkvX6M0KE5C-7zEzA9QZ51-KfJWZworOtQ7aUGjWrD0TVRRyuf16wir=
tGZBS2zD4OmTQKeaKw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   32468929 32448834 31928774 31298672 30298738 30058753
            30368919 30528989 31058980 31508959 32468929=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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