Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0716
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 06 2025 16:02:41

ACUS11 KWNS 061602
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061601=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-061800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania into western New
Jersey and far southeast New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 061601Z - 061800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase over the next
several hours. The stronger storms will be capable of strong wind
gusts and perhaps large hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance
may be needed if appreciable strong storm coverage becomes apparent.

DISCUSSION...Insolation is modifying the boundary layer amid some
persistent cloud cover, remnant from earlier showers and
thunderstorms, which is warming temperatures through the 60s F.
Cooling temperatures atop a destabilizing airmass from the approach
of a pronounced upper trough, and minimal convection inhibition, is
supporting relative robust updraft development across southeast PA
(per MRMS mosaic radar imagery). Through the day, further heating
should boost MLCAPE to over 1000 J/kg, which should be adequate for
scattered strong to potentially severe storms given expected 40-50
kts of effective bulk shear. Current regional VADs and short-term
RAP forecast soundings depict a unidirectional vertical wind profile
with elongated, straight hodographs. As such, linear multicellular
clusters and transient supercells should be the primary modes of
convection for the stronger storms that manage to develop. Strong,
damaging gusts are possible later this afternoon once the boundary
layer destabilizes. Given colder temperatures aloft overspreading
the Mid-Atlantic into the Hudson Valley, large hail cannot be ruled
out either. Therefore, if robust storm coverage becomes apparent, a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed within the next few hours.

...Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5dl6rZJlKAnECmw2d_GX7dcYVdRC80ip2tvNDS1QaJrj3idQTcCVMeqGdPyhoo869DRfl6kko=
7uCFsiNF5C-M7ABX28$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40187461 39677487 39507511 39497538 39597578 39797624
            39917661 40777666 41337661 41847648 42337627 42537581
            42137499 41367469 40737453 40187461=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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