Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 06 2025 15:03:58

AWUS01 KWNH 061502
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-062101-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0233
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1102 AM EDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...Northern Texas and Southern/Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061501Z - 062101Z

SUMMARY...Broad area of moderate rainfall with embedded
thunderstorms and heavier rates could lead to scattered flash
flooding with more widespread nuisance flooding through this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Strong ascent continues east of the closed low moving
over the southern Rockies/High Plains, while a squall line pushes
eastward across Texas. Ahead of this squall line, some scattered
supercells are possible within an elevated warm sector and MUCAPE
of 1,000-2,000 J/kg. Rainfall rates per MRMS have generally
remained below 1.5"/hr, but this area along the Red River Valley
has experienced saturated ground conditions as of late. NASA SPoRT
LIS 0-40 cm soil moisture percentiles are generally in the 70-95th
range (lower in northeast TX and southeast OK). The longer
duration of moderate to heavy rainfall (pockets of 1-2"/hr)
expected through this afternoon could lead to localized flash
flooding where terrain and ground conditions are most susceptible.
However, even where flash flooding does not occur, nuisance
flooding and ponding of water in fields/near roads is possible.

Recent HRRR runs depict 3-hrly totals up to 1.5" possible in the
highlighted MPD area, with some locations already recording
0.5-1.0" since 12z. 3-hrly FFGs in the area are less than 2.5"
from a line between DAL and OKC on westward, with eastern sections
of the MPD highlighted by 3-hrly FFGs of 3-4". PWATs over the 90th
climatological percentile extend northward to the Red River, with
values over 1.7" into north-central TX ahead of the squall line.
Storms developing in this region of better moisture and strong
southern 850mb flow of 40-50kts in eastern TX will surge northward
overriding a mid-level warm front and add to the heavier mostly
stratiform rainfall through this afternoon with embedded
convection leading to the isolated flash flooding threat.

Snell

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9B6RyaImxVjtm_rl5c2NVrCOKRqLJV7RCP9EAg9HiM7eL_6loYdf1QLCvdsUxZTAN5Y9=
zn6ERw2ALiY27yiVNUzEu58$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35749821 35669728 35289629 34679517 33979440=20
            33049444 32309547 31729684 31179826 31569863=20
            32439795 33399804 34689881 35379879=20

=3D =3D =3D
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