Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue May 06 2025 08:00:55 AWUS01 KWNH 060800 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-061400- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0231 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...TX Big Country through Hill Country...Adj Ext Southweset OK... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 060800Z - 061400Z SUMMARY...Broad area of ascent across much of TX ahead of anomalously deep closed low exiting the Southwest. Scattered incidents of flash flooding possible with localized 2-3" totals across recently saturated grounds/low FFG.=20 DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows core of 3-3.5 Std Dev. closed low is finally starting to translate eastward given upstream kicker resulting in very broad downstream diffluence/divergence area to shift out of the High Plains into the Big Country and eastern Edwards Plateau. A convectively reinforced shortwave is starting to shear along the northeast quadrant of the low and pivot into E NM still providing an axis of 700mb isentropic ascent/WAA channel to maintain elevated convection/broadening moderate shield precipitation across the Rolling Plains into the Big Country and Red River Valley. Activity is scattered and generally lighter with occasional embedded cores capable of 1"+/hr rates but increased duration over greatest saturated soil conditions (where precip anomalies are 300-500% of normal and remain in the upper 90th percentiles of saturation). As such, limited infiltration will result in some enhanced run-off, but likely be limited in coverage to those random/scattered elevated cores. Southward into the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country... A broad/strong axis of DPVA ahead of the main height-falls is maintaining the 999mb low near/south of MAF, the stationary front is starting to lift northeast as a warm front ahead of the low and the dry line across the Western TX Panhandle is shifting eastward increasing moisture convergence ahead of it. Warm moist winds out of the Rio Grande Valley continue to advect 1.3-1.5" total PWats (loaded mainly below 850mb) will continue to be highly confluent even as they veer more southerly/southwesterly over the next few hours. Higher unstable air with MUCAPE of 2000+ j/kg will isentropically ascend across the front and maintain stronger thunderstorms/clusters along the boundary as they shift eastward.=20 Rates of 2"/hr are probable, though 1.5" may fall in 15-30 minutes given 06z HRRR forecast and given some upstream cells may allow for two rounds and/or flanking line repeating/training resulting in spots of 2-3.5" totals mainly near/just north of the front across the Edwards Plateau toward the Hill country. This area has experienced less heavy rainfall than further north, so soil ratios are much more supportive of infiltration, but the shear intense rates have a solid probability to result in scattered incidents of flash flooding through daybreak.=20 Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7jvy40uk_yP6qavLrS7B8BTO2TlHZvozSU9W7QSATtW51-SLaPcRVIgE48RDaXPMvNd_= 1v873evK1qD3ceg9b2Wuy_E$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34689941 34119755 32869680 31409681 31019684=20 30319715 29989767 29939885 30480069 30920171=20 31550195 32830212 34090165 34610071=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .