Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0710 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue May 06 2025 07:35:56 ACUS11 KWNS 060734 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060733=20 TXZ000-060900- Mesoscale Discussion 0710 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the TX Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau Concerning...Tornado Watch 229... Valid 060733Z - 060900Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 229 continues. SUMMARY...Tornadoes remain possible near/south of the warm front. Otherwise, a threat for large hail and localized severe gusts will continue. DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing early this morning across parts of the TX Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau. While the mode has become complex, a few supercells have persisted, with a recent report of 2.5 inch hail in Crane County, TX. Convection may continue to increase in coverage overnight, in response to an eastward-moving mid/upper-level cyclone over the Southwest and related strong low-level jet.=20 Moderate to strong instability and very favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell potential overnight, though some continued clustering of storms is possible, especially along an eastward moving cold front. Large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will continue to be a threat overnight with the strongest storms.=20 The environment remains conditionally favorable for tornadoes near/south of a northwest-to-southeast oriented warm front, with substantial low-level SRH continuing to be noted in the KDFX VWP. Thus far, storms have tended to quickly move to the cool side of the front and become elevated. However, it remains possible that ongoing developing convection west of Del Rio could evolve into a supercell that would pose a tornado threat in addition to the hail/wind potential. Storms near the intersection of the warm front and eastward-moving cold front/outflow could also pose some embedded tornado potential.=20 With some severe threat likely to persist beyond the 4 AM CDT expiration time of WW 229, local watch extension and/or new watch issuance will be possible later this morning. ...Dean/Guyer.. 05/06/2025 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7eAkuix5v1Wtt80zFcP3a67JoSDkT64nCgeNEnL8wj7UQiXAKAC4IxqAfn8MoYiELHANbVsy5= r3B2tV2Jk-3WOe7Wy8$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30870316 31980225 31980079 31839951 31499835 30959830 30389867 29529957 29030029 29050107 29510198 29860257 30320317 30870316=20 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .