Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0709
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 06 2025 04:31:18

ACUS11 KWNS 060431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060430=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-060630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0709
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of swrn TX and adjacent sern NM

Concerning...Tornado Watch 229...

Valid 060430Z - 060630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 229 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorm initiation now appears underway
across the Pecos Valley into Del Rio vicinity.  A few cells may
undergo considerable further intensification accompanied by
increasing potential to produce very large hail and perhaps a strong
tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...Increasing and intensifying discrete thunderstorm
development now appears underway across the Pecos Valley. This is
focused within modestly deep surface troughing east-southeast of a
surface low, now centered west-northwest of Fort Stockton, where
boundary-layer moisture characterized by lower 60s surface dew
points has spread as far northwest as the I-20 corridor to the
southwest of Midland/Odessa.  This is contributing to mixed-layer
CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg.

With further weakening of inhibition, strengthening convection
rooted within this environment will pose the greatest potential to
undergo rapid intensification, supported by both strong deep-layer
shear and now enlarged, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs along
a southeasterly low-level jet (40-50 kt around 850 mb).  This
environment appears potentially conducive to a couple of intense
supercells posing a risk for very large hail and perhaps a strong
tornado or two.

...Kerr.. 05/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6TOmZZPXC3XBLfIfq4w1WRqpMA2YViFRIIXPv5AdeDn31_t-CImUOn8TOcXIstnJlHnyU1bEw=
5EHMe5dD4Ov1NPApRA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31890394 32020289 30800113 30090066 29860222 30280270
            30760382 31330385 31890394=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.