Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue May 06 2025 02:48:04 AWUS01 KWNH 060247 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-060830- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0228 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1047 PM EDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...Central & Eastern NM...Cap Rock & Northern Permian Basin of TX... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 060245Z - 060830Z SUMMARY...Streaks of thunderstorms with repeating flanking line development will become increasingly efficient with moistening profiles. Increasing rates to 1.5-1.75" with 1.5-3" totals resulting in widely scattered incidents of possible flash flooding. DISCUSSION...GOES WV continues to show fairly static deep upper low across east-central AZ with trof extending southward as stronger 120-130kt 250mb jet undercuts it resulting in broad downstream diffluence across the Southern High Plains into W TX.=20 An embedded vorticity center can be seen near the SW Heel of NM starting to sharpen, ready to lift northeastward providing even further mid to upper level forcing through strong DPVA. As a result a strong 995-6 surface low exists in the vicinity of the Davis mountains with a strong 50-60 Td gradient across it in less than a few miles. This dryline extends north toward an intersection with old stationary front between CNM and GDP (which extends along the Sacramento Mtns toward ABQ and southeastward across the Pecos Valley toward ECU/ERV. Isallobaric response in the lowest levels is supporting very strong convergence along the axis of both the dry line and stationary front providing very solid moisture and instability transport, with 40-50kts of southeasterly flow off the Rio Grande Valley into the W Texas Panhandle; PWs are trickling into the 1.25" range and capped 2000+ J/kg CAPE (a subsequent MPD may be required if/when cap breaks across southern Permian/Pecos River Valley). North of the front/dryline intersection, flow is backed further out of the east-northeast to northeast at similar 20-40kts from surface to boundary layer. The flux into the front is pooling to ..75-1" PW and support a narrow ribbon of 1000 J/kg as far north as ABQ. As such, strong thunderstorms have been developing along the stationary front and given deep layer steering, have been lifting north (further west) and northeast (across the northern Permian Basin to southern Cap Rock).=20 Given the upstream forcing remains upstream, the surface response has locked the front and these localized convergence maxima to support back-building or flanking redevelopment that generally follow similar paths. Initially, large hail and gusty winds have been the primary factor, but the continued flux and rainfall has been locally moistening the profile and increasing rainfall efficiency. Combine this with continued expanding divergence aloft, upscale growth into clusters and 'wedges' in satellite appearance will increase, though the source/redevelopment regions will decouple as the DPVA and FGEN ascent lifts north and northeast. As such, rates up to 1.5"/hr will become possible and with training/repeating, streaks of 1.5-3" will become more likely across north-central NM into the Cap Rock.=20 AHPS 7-10 precipiation anomalies show much of these areas have seen well above normal rainfall (200-400%) and NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil saturation graphics denote this as well rising into the 70-80th percentiles, especially further north and east across the Cap Rock into the Big Country. As such, scattered incidents of flash flooding should become possible through the overnight period. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6PKildUX1RhiAHTlcMe9ccRmpalpVifABwVk08lPLvwyKfNKcyUYuNQJlLxz22CWuTJS= wc46mBXOFov0C6cHXb7mjyE$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36450534 36050360 34950147 34260051 33360001=20 32649996 32180013 31740065 31700321 32100423=20 33790521 34500562 35210638 36040636=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .