Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0704
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 05 2025 22:35:04

ACUS11 KWNS 052235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052234=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-060030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0704
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of sern TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225...

Valid 052234Z - 060030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development will continue
for several more hours, including few cells which may become capable
of producing severe hail, before activity weakens later this
evening.  It is unlikely that a new severe weather watch will be
needed, but trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A broad area of convection, rooted within forcing for
ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection,
continues to gradually overspread much of eastern/southeastern
Texas, with scattered embedded thunderstorm activity.  This includes
more recent vigorous development northwest of Victoria through
mid/upper Texas coastal areas, in closer proximity to a stalled
surface frontal zone extending inland of coastal areas, through the
Texas Hill Country and Edwards Plateau.  The northward edge of the
stronger convection appears focused along the leading edge of
southward propagating gravity waves, which may reach the Greater
Houston and College Station vicinities by 00-01z.  Until then,
thermodynamic profiles characterized by seasonably moist air,
surmounted by modestly steep lapse rates, above the frontal
inversion, may remain supportive of convection capable of producing
severe hail, aided by strong shear in the convective layer.

...Kerr.. 05/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-K1yDFB_8RVghEbZmuKkDg9LYfQMzurTH0HNiMOO6P8AKbDrFm_XAlniBTB4oWCLOQUGRreKV=
2H2lqd3PKirA0bzsNs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   30879768 30889612 30449458 29689377 29209346 28379536
            28519646 29589766 30119827 30719788 30879768=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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