Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0703
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 05 2025 22:34:14

ACUS11 KWNS 052234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052233=20
FLZ000-060030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0703
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...the east-central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224...

Valid 052233Z - 060030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development within a buoyancy maximum will
likely result in a lingering severe hail and wind threat for the
next 1-2 hours across the east-central Florida Peninsula.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development along a convectively
reinforced sea-breeze boundary has resulted in overturning of a
buoyant air mass for much of the northern and southern east coast of
FL. However, a relative minimum in convection across the central
part of the east coast (roughly between Lake Okeechobee to Orlando,
FL and eastward) has left a reservoir of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Over
the past 15-30 minutes, robust convection has developed along the
sea-breeze boundary and is migrating into this CAPE maximum. 0-6 km
BWD values behind the sea-breeze remain near 40 knots per the KMLB
VWP, which will support supercells with an attendant risk for
damaging winds and large hail, possibly up to the size of golf
balls. This activity should persist for the next 1-2 hours before
destructive storm interactions, convective overturning, and the
onset of nocturnal cooling lead to a gradual reduction in the severe
threat.

...Moore.. 05/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4E4G-GSZcqJdq_HpXI4Vcc6T2oq8jmQLmoS2omjlZ1A5VdiT5fWXjdyNZDTQQ5xZ0sP4g1uTV=
Q5eF322r1faLZ9-9PA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   26378060 26508099 26698128 26928145 27248147 27828148
            28048138 28208116 28278099 28228085 28068069 27618043
            27288023 27018015 26788011 26558021 26418032 26408045
            26378060=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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