Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0701
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 05 2025 21:30:04

ACUS11 KWNS 052130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052129=20
VAZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-052330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0701
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0429 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 052129Z - 052330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving north out of southeast Virginia will
migrate into a buoyant air mass in place across the DelMarVa region.
Re-intensification is expected and may result in an uptick in the
severe hail/wind threat. Watch issuance is being considered to
address this potential.

DISCUSSION...A mix of semi-discrete thunderstorms and weakly
organized linear segments continues to migrate north out of
southeast VA. While a few stronger cores persist, much of the
convection currently appears weak/disorganized based on GOES IR
imagery and MRMS vertical ice/echo top data. However, these storms
are moving into an environment characterized by better buoyancy
(MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg) that is in place across the DelMarVa
region. Consequently, some uptick in intensity is anticipated within
the next 1-2 hours. Deep-layer wind shear sampled by regional VWPs
is fairly modest - around 20-25 knots of 0-6 km BWD. However, this
should be sufficient for a few organized cells and linear segments
capable of producing damaging winds and 1.0 to 1.5 inch hail.

...Moore/Smith.. 05/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-Sngb45cuLCHd1XnL56CV6zEUDv7lCTaAQfcI_uArC-qJs5R91z-IHdoj0KcoKngw8lfnaSMo=
csvLEDRabOA5_7WRLQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   37687760 38617858 39057882 39307881 39677865 39997827
            40077798 40057760 39837722 39257636 38867603 38407592
            38117592 37777606 37557624 37357656 37357685 37467726
            37687760=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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