Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0697
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 05 2025 19:11:05

ACUS11 KWNS 051910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051910=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-052115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0697
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...eastern NC and southeast VA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223...

Valid 051910Z - 052115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223
continues.

SUMMARY...A mixed severe hail/damaging wind threat should persist
across eastern North Carolina and advance/shift north-northeast
across southeast Virginia through early evening.

DISCUSSION...Numerous cells have been prevalent, especially across
central into eastern NC this afternoon. Here, a south-southwesterly
deep-layer wind profile, per area VWPs, along with transient
supercell structures has resulted in convection largely progressing
northeastward thus far. But activity should pivot to a greater
northerly component given the evolution of the upstream vort
max/attendant mid-level jetlet. Air mass appears to be modestly
unstable downstream across southeast VA with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. This should help sustain a severe hail/damaging wind threat
through early evening. Despite numerous cells and hail reports, peak
severe magnitude has only reached 1 inch thus far.

...Grams.. 05/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7PBeVZYX1wnZl9ck3JJUvI4ehmZQiC3hT4jO0cUNJRe-_n37VaQNGntQyyXLi0sd0tV5zAP8M=
M8d46rcB_M9M9yg6ww$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   35777850 36717804 37187784 37797747 37877710 37787662
            37427648 36687664 35597701 35077731 34887758 34717781
            34747818 35047835 35777850=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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