Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0696
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 05 2025 18:58:34

ACUS11 KWNS 051858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051858=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-052030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0696
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...portions of far southeast New Mexico into far
western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 051858Z - 052030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is gradually increasing across southeast
NM into far western TX. Supercells should organize over the next few
hours, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk. The tornado risk will
initially be low, but should increase by evening. A Tornado Watch
may be needed in the next few hours to address the impending severe
threat.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has recently occurred over far
southeastern NM along a confluence band ahead of a surface trough,
with CU gradually becoming more agitated farther south into the
Trans-Pecos region of southwestern TX. Ahead of the
developing/intensifying storms, continued diurnal heating beneath
steepening mid-level lapse rates is supporting 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE.
With stronger 500 mb flow rotating around a parent upper low and
overspreading the southern High Plains, effective bulk shear
continues to increase (currently over 45 kts per 18Z mesoanalysis).
As such, storms that mature and become sustained should become
supercellular, with an initial severe hail/wind risk.=20

The regional VADs and 18Z mesoanalysis currently depict weak to
modest low-level shear, which should temper the tornado threat to a
degree. However, a quasi-stationary baroclinic boundary, identified
via visible satellite, resides from Chaves County, NM to Howard
County, TX. While the tornado threat will increase later this
evening with the intensification of the low-level jet, localized
earlier tornado potential may exist with a supercell that can anchor
to this boundary.  Given the increasing severe threat, a Tornado
Watch may be needed in the next few hours.

...Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8RXpd_ec-8pbPwjhOuQTc11qL-W9UmoUGHyFaGhLp3zRnGebiEgBqaQievOCqeLrqJnb8WyIi=
p2fbQJPeqlX5n8vw-I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31120309 31830426 32290470 32980517 33680518 33950510
            34200489 34280438 33920344 33090228 32400183 31730162
            31050197 31120309=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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