Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0695
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 05 2025 18:19:05

ACUS11 KWNS 051818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051818=20
TXZ000-051915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0695
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051818Z - 051915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in localized severe potential is evident with
an intensifying supercell. Severe wind and hail are the main
threats, though a tornado could also occur.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts a deepening supercell
updraft across Lee County, TX, with 40 dBZ echoes exceeding 50 kft
and MESH exceeding 1.5 inches. KGRK radar data shows this supercell
deviating to the right, toward a surface airmass with mid to upper
70s/60s F temperatures/dewpoints and SBCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg.
It is possible that this currently elevated supercell may become
surface-based, allowing for this storm to ingest more buoyant
parcels and favorable low-level shear (evident via curved low-level
hodographs on the EWX and GRK VADs). As such, a severe hail/gust
threat may be increasing, and a tornado cannot be ruled out.

...Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_fHT4qi68m49kztHKTqe7tTluAS62rrXfzwSrYtXnRUXw7ueD4fzJd2FcJlYfs8WGk-WZnZpm=
S1P1sP6cbA_Pr53KZI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   29849647 29969714 30209731 30539728 30559633 30479579
            30359565 30009562 29829619 29849647=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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