Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0694
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 05 2025 18:17:12

ACUS11 KWNS 051816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051816=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-052015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051816Z - 052015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and localized damaging winds are
possible into late afternoon across northern Virginia into
south-central Pennsylvania. This region may remain in a less
favorable setup relative to areas south and west, lowering
confidence for a severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Scattered, low-topped convection has been persistent
during early afternoon from northern VA into western PA. Generalized
northwestward movement has stymied destabilization deeper into PA,=20
with a gradual uptick in intensity over northern VA to western MD.
Deep-layer speed shear will remain favorable (per Sterling VWP data)
for further intensification, but this may be confined to the
southeast extent of sustained storms and yield predominately
marginal severe hail/wind. Meanwhile, more widespread deep
convection is occurring across central to eastern NC. Latest trends
with this activity suggest it may largely shift across southeast VA
into late afternoon. Overall, the potential for a sustained
hail/wind threat through peak heating appears nebulous.

...Grams/Gleason.. 05/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-cIiTK4U7Ph-JsTI_QQfpY3hE8nczpk1yMP6LjUKPp4IcZU9LdYbN5huJ9RZFAIPukTj97OCY=
argy7UzIlP4sCz9ogg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   39747685 38577681 38327750 38267842 38687916 39217967
            39627974 40057919 40287847 40167757 39747685=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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