Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0692
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 05 2025 17:42:44

ACUS11 KWNS 051741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051740=20
FLZ000-051945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0692
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...Atlantic coast of central/south FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051740Z - 051945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated damaging winds will be possible
along the Atlantic coastal sea breeze through early evening.
Monitoring for a potential severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Convection has struggled to become sustained along the
southeast FL sea breeze, but will probably do so over the next
couple hours. Additional cells should eventually form farther north
into east-central FL. Initial activity over southeast FL may
struggle a bit given weak low to mid-level winds. But pronounced
veering of the wind profile with height, from low-level southerlies
to upper-level westerlies, coupled with ample MLCAPE of 2500-3000
J/kg, should support a few cells producing occasional large hail and
isolated strong to severe gusts. Farther north, stronger mid-level
winds, as sampled by the 12Z Tampa sounding, will support supercell
potential here as well. Based on current satellite/guidance trends,
convection may be delayed/more isolated in the late afternoon.

...Grams/Gleason.. 05/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7ah_INXDlMMdmq2OkgUMd7rEFsjwi3Q_SNSeofS9XRGDtwNCM-K2RiPXOaBnnIK-kg7hWi_k5=
qxETjmoW9F648JObBI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...

LAT...LON   26897998 25328018 25368066 25578079 26828062 27568091
            28608114 28768106 28858078 26897998=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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