Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 05 2025 07:22:15 AWUS01 KWNH 050720 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-051300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0224 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 319 AM EDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...Northern & Eastern New Mexico... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 050720Z - 051300Z SUMMARY...Continued risk of regenerative thunderstorms along the dryline/surface front. Deep layer steering may support training/repeating locally for streaks of 2-3" totals and possible DISCUSSION...GOES WV suite depicts very deep (3-3.5 Std. Dev.) closed low generally centered in the Lower Colorado River Valley and is currently reorienting as very strong shortwave energy rotates around the western to southwestern edge of current center. This is elongating the overall low favorably across eastern AZ into much of NM to support strong divergent/diffluence pattern with 100-120kt jet streak rounding the base of the upper-low in NW Old Mexico. In also supporting/broadening updraft strength for any convection that does develop, it is has be strengthening solid moisture return through the Rio Grande and Pecos Valley through the southern High Plains. Strong easterly and confluent southeastern flow at 15-20kts exist across much of north-central to southeast NM. CIRA LPW denotes deepest moisture remains upstream across the western TX panhandle through the Guadeloupe Mtns with nose of ..5-.75" sfc-850mb wedge trying to filter in. Concurrently, the 850-700mb layer from the southeast on 35-40kts of flow (per VWP) is reaching .5"...reaching near 1" totals across southeast NM.=20 EML's are steepening lapse rates to support sufficient lapse rates to support 500-1000 MUCAPE pooling along the stationary frontal boundary toward a surface low in the northern Rio Grande Valley north of ONM. As such, orographic ascent and localized convergence is sparking widely scattered thunderstorms in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Weak isallobaric pressure falls aid inflow/maintenance of updrafts for a few hours to over-come the strong effective bulk shear in the weakly unstable environment.=20 As such, steering flow in diffluent pattern supports short-term training of the updrafts oriented more south to north across northern NM, while more SW to NE in the vicinity of the Sacramento Range into eastern NM. Rates of .75"/hr and 1-2 hours of repeating, may support localized totals of 1.5-2.5" and given dry/hard ground conditions has the potential to exceed the lower FFG values (1-1.5"/hr, 1-2.5"/3hrs).=20 Eventually, shortwave energy will round the base and the associated jet will increase southwesterly flow and the frontal zone will start to lift east and northeast with further enhanced moisture flux convergence along the leading edge. This should help to expand overall coverage, but may limit the increased duration locally into the early morning hours. Isolated incidents of flash flooding remain possible through morning. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-EtUO_usx9PKwfcJ9pFCg0QvDAvjTAqT1L5Yom4s2sZwuoB7ZRrTKMDi9OurgtFJnyNe= 12YdwnWHsxDlpqeM0sfq4DU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36580528 36200420 35510344 34880312 33440283=20 32370321 32280446 32710530 33670611 34260672=20 34810764 35550787 36190745 36580654=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .