Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 05 2025 00:31:07 AWUS01 KWNH 050031 FFGMPD TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-050630- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0222 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 830 PM EDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern NM...Portions of the Western TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 050030Z - 050630Z SUMMARY...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours across areas of central and eastern NM and edging out into parts of western TX. Heavy rainfall rates will continue to promote a concern for widely scattered areas of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows several broken clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms with cold convective tops impacting areas central and eastern NM into parts of far western TX. There continues to be as much as 1000+ J/kg of MUCAPE pooled across much of central to southeast NM which coupled with relatively moist low-level southeast flow should tend to maintain the convective threat well through the evening hours. Divergent flow aloft associated with left-exit region upper-level jet dynamics downstream of an upper trough/closed low over the Southwest is also yielding a corridor of deeper layer ascent for more sustainable clusters of convection. Rainfall rates with the stronger convective cells should continue to be on the order of 1 to 1.5 inches/hour over the next several hours, with some localized orographic ascent/upslope flow over the higher terrain favoring some of these higher rates. A combination of some cell-mergers and cell-training may foster some storm total amounts of as much as 2 to 4 inches which is generally favored by a consensus of the latest hires model guidance. This may result in some additional widely scattered areas of flash flooding which may occur near some locally sensitive burn scar locations or dry washes. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5FRLX6G8TlwU2vn9xR9JQFRAdj6CCr6qotUODNkSbsXMdAwk7Ddb2ePPECIIb6dyV_uM= yC4AKcc7Cl9VjSLhRF_B4H0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37110471 36770348 35520268 33950207 32790196=20 31890254 31730357 32220446 32920496 34270577=20 35150681 36220683 36870611=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .