Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0687
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 05 2025 00:16:57

ACUS11 KWNS 050016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050016=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-050145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0687
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Areas affected...Northeast SC...eastern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 050016Z - 050145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may continue through the
evening.

DISCUSSION...Isolated strong storms have developed near a weakly
confluent surface front across parts of the eastern Carolinas this
evening. Earlier modest heating of a moist environment has resulted
in MLCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg, while moderate southwesterly flow
along the periphery of the OH/TN Valley midlevel cyclone is
providing sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization.=20

With rather prominent midlevel dryness noted in WV imagery and
generally limited large-scale ascent, coverage and intensity of
storms this evening may generally be relatively limited. However, a
couple of left-moving cells have been able to move northward and
remain within the confluence zone, resulting in locally greater
storm intensity and longevity. Hail and locally gusty winds could
accompany the strongest storms through the evening, before cooling
and stabilization becomes more prominent later tonight.

...Dean/Smith.. 05/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6v10bCShrwHL_tJqcYpHajDtfD5JJkP8_5FPgs6yBCE0nAhrMj1BzRXP0luvPrNQKGq-sWx_s=
y_n-hulfomFJEeIkww$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON   35167892 36277864 36327781 36207730 35387752 34627800
            33947837 33107947 33357994 34167936 35167892=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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