Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 04 2025 19:11:04

AWUS01 KWNH 041910
FFGMPD
FLZ000-042300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0219
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EDT Sun May 04 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Mainland FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041905Z - 042300Z

Summary...Localized training of 1-3"/hr rainfall rates may result
in isolated 5"+ totals over the next several hours. Localized
flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...Deep convection has initiated over the past couple of
hours over southeast FL, spurred by enhanced moisture convergence
at the surface from southeasterly (onshore) flow from the Atlantic
and rain cooled outflow from an earlier low of convection to the
west. The mesoscale environment is characterized by SBCAPE of
2000-2500 J/kg, PWATs of 1.7-1.9" (near the 90th percentile, per
MFL sounding climatology), and deep layer shear of 30 kts (near
the 75th percentile). Given recent observational trends, limited
backbuilding/training appears possible in the vicinity of the
Miami and Ft Lauderdale metro areas, with MRMS indicating hourly
rates/totals of 1-3" with the stronger convective cells. Given the
increasingly favorable mesoscale environment and very supportive
parameter space (with hi-res CAMs also signaling the potential for
localized 5" exceedance with 12z HREF 40-km neighborhood
probabilities of 15%), localized flash flooding is possible.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_BxV9E0Zx5b-4QINBiGrDg0fdeq-fGqPxtsyIcZ1C-y6silZ_0rR3fwJ2r_rWOlwaZXR=
ymgz02oltPbts1kiTqZPYL8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   26568033 26557988 25797993 25188024 25568066=20
            25998045 26448048=20

=3D =3D =3D
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