Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 04 2025 17:17:24 ACUS02 KWNS 041717 SWODY2 SPC AC 041715 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ....Synopsis... A pair of upper cyclones, one over the Ohio Valley and the other across the Southwest, will pivot east on Monday. These systems will support a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across the southern Rockies/High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic/Lower Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from the Mid-Atlantic south/southwest into north-central FL. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to develop across eastern NM and southwest TX, while a warm front lifts slowly northward across northwest and central TX. These features will focus potential for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon into the evening/overnight. ....Southeast NM into Central TX... Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest toward southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos vicinity ahead of a sharpening dryline. Strong heating along/just behind the dryline will foster moderate diurnal destabilization as deep-layer flow strengthens. Forecast hodographs initially will be elongated/straight through the afternoon and early evening. Splitting supercells produce large/very large hail are expected with initial convection. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates where stronger heating occurs also could support strong/severe gusts. During the evening, a low-level jet will increase, resulting in enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Additional rounds of supercells may develop as the dryline begins to retreat and stronger ascent overspreads the region. This activity will continue to pose a significant hail risk with an increasing risk for a couple of tornadoes. As the upper low draws closer to the southern Rockies during the nighttime hours, weak cyclogenesis may occur over far southwest TX. Additional thunderstorm clusters, possibly growing upscale into an MCS propagating along the higher theta-e gradient across west-central to central TX is possible. It is uncertain how intense this convection may become given multiple rounds of convection across parts of the area earlier in the day, but some risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two will persist. ....OK/TX Panhandle into Northeast NM/southeast CO... With northward extent across the southern High Plains, northward moisture return will remain muted, with dewpoints generally in the 40s to low 50s F forecast. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates amid strengthening vertical shear. Isolated large hail and gusty winds may accompany thunderstorm activity north of the effective warm front in an upslope flow regime. ....Mid-Atlantic to Lower Great Lakes... Pockets of heating into the afternoon amid mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints, and cold temperatures aloft will support modest destabilization (up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) across the region. Enhanced midlevel flow will support effective shear values to around 35-45 kt. This should support isolated organized updrafts, with stronger cells having potential for large hail and locally strong gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ....FL... A surface cold front will sag south through the period. Furthermore, an east coast sea breeze developing ahead of the cold front appears probable. Strong heating amid mid 60s F dewpoints will aid in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg). Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -12 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. While deep-layer flow will be somewhat weak through 700 mb, vertically veering wind profiles will support around 30 kt effective shear. Elongated/straight hodographs in conjunction with a favorable thermodynamic environment suggests isolated hail will be possible. Steep low-level lapse rates also will support strong gusts. ...Leitman.. 05/04/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .