Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0665
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 03 2025 16:16:13

ACUS11 KWNS 031615
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031614=20
MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-031815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0665
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Northeast and southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 031614Z - 031815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected through the
afternoon across a confined corridor of the Northeast and southern
New England. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and hail is
anticipated. A severe thunderstorm watch issuance appears likely.

DISCUSSION...Bulk of morning guidance, outside of the HRRR and
parent RAP, suggest a favorable corridor of at least isolated severe
storms should develop from the PA/NJ/NY border northeastward across
parts of interior southern New England. Robust boundary-layer
heating is underway ahead of the minor lobe of ascent over eastern
PA and south of the quasi-stationary front. The differential heating
across the front will aid in strengthening the baroclinic zone.
While mid-level lapse rates are weak and will temper overall storm
intensity, nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with
moderate speed shear will foster occasional updraft rotation. A mix
of cells and small clusters should support both a severe hail/wind
threat in a confined corridor through the afternoon.

...Grams/Gleason.. 05/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-N2nc9z9chcPpSj0rGgJ5-V3dmzufVrq3_Z7lBmSHABD7Aia-avaXBPLcyBPr5gXIGPFIyz-l=
1s-oEyt0u9UA9OBbJ4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   41187498 42107438 42727332 43327208 43437130 43187092
            42597125 41777276 41177389 40647457 40437498 40537542
            41187498=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.