Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat May 03 2025 06:02:51 ACUS01 KWNS 030602 SWODY1 SPC AC 030600 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible later today into this evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may also develop across the Southeast and Ohio Valley, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ....Synopsis... A slow-moving mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop across parts of IL/MO later today. This cyclone will be embedded within a broad mid/upper-level trough covering much of eastern CONUS. A slow-moving cold front will gradually progress southeastward from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. One frontal wave may move east-northeastward during the day toward southern New England, while the primary surface low gradually consolidates over the OH/TN Valleys. The western portion of the front will continue to move across Deep South TX into the lower MS Valley. For the western CONUS, a mid/upper-level trough will amplify and dig southeastward into parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. A cold front will move eastward across parts of the Great Basin in conjunction with this system. ....Parts of the East... The greatest relative severe threat within the broad prefrontal region across the East is currently expected from the Carolina Piedmont into parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, where somewhat stronger diurnal heating/destabilization is currently expected. A belt of moderate midlevel southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. Organized cells/clusters may develop during the afternoon from the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and perhaps some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. Uncertainty is greater regarding potential for destabilization in the wake of morning storms across parts of eastern MS into AL/GA and FL Panhandle. However, some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. Portions of the Southeast may require greater severe probabilities if trends begin to support stronger instability in advance of the cold front. ....Parts of NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep midlevel lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe gusts and small to near-severe hail. ....Parts of the TX Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west TX. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, so if somewhat greater instability materializes compared to current expectations, then a supercell or two with some hail potential could evolve with time. ....Deep South TX... Strong storms could be ongoing near the cold front across a small part of Deep South TX at the start of the forecast period, though it is also possible that the front and any remaining severe threat will have already passed through the region. Any remaining storms this morning could pose a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Dean/Moore.. 05/03/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .