Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0663 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat May 03 2025 03:49:52 ACUS11 KWNS 030349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030348=20 TXZ000-030545- Mesoscale Discussion 0663 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...Deep South Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217... Valid 030348Z - 030545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217 continues. SUMMARY...Strongest thunderstorms posing a continuing risk for large hail and localized strong to severe wind gusts may remained confined near and to the west of the Rio Grande River. However, storms now forming east-southeast of Cotulla may impact the Corpus Christi vicinity by Midnight-1 AM CDT, with at least some risk for severe hail and wind. It is not clear that a new severe weather watch will be needed for the Brownsville area, but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...The shallow leading edge of the slowly southward advancing cold front now appears south of Cotulla and Victoria, with some continuing increase in thunderstorm development near the Cotulla vicinity. A more intense, discrete storm which developed near the front to the west of the Rio Grande has maintained a propagation to the right of the deep-layer mean flow/shear, near the river, in the wake of the consolidated remnants of a preceding pair of supercells that initiated off the higher terrain to the north-northwest.=20=20 Stronger renewed thunderstorm development above the cold pool associated with this lead activity is maintaining a propagation to the west of the the river, but peak intensities have weakened some, apparently in response to the onset of boundary layer cooling beneath warm elevated mixed layer air. As southward suppression of the elevated mixed-layer air continues near/north of the surface front, it is possible that the frontal thunderstorm development may persist through the remainder of Deep South Texas by 06-9Z, perhaps accompanied by some continuing risk for severe hail and wind. ...Kerr.. 05/03/2025 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!93b-LI-AclxgyzHqJMNjlgqtOyQQVIHy8SCiVhtm4TBm2rh1UVW4Z14JijuTYFKeEvXqM54xT= SEceGij9dRdoEAX4ds$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 28490065 28750000 28219838 28129684 27079671 26299705 26009755 25929856 26289979 26910094 28490065=20 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .