Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0661
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 03 2025 00:13:10

ACUS11 KWNS 030013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030012=20
TXZ000-030215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Areas affected...parts of south central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 215...

Valid 030012Z - 030215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 215
continues.

SUMMARY...Potential for a substantive increase in thunderstorm
development and intensification continues, primarily along a
southward-southwestward advancing cold front.  It remains uncertain
whether an additional severe weather watch will be needed across the
lower Rio Grande Valley into lower Texas coastal areas, but trends
are being monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...A steady southward advancement of the cold front
continues across/south of San Antonio, into the Uvalde and Del Rio
vicinities.  Aided by mid-level cooling beneath moderate to strong
westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow, low-level
convergence/frontogenetic forcing may still contribute to forcing
for increasing thunderstorm development along it this evening.  The
seasonably moist and heated boundary layer inland of lower Texas
coastal areas, across the Rio Grande River remains characterized by
strong convective and potential instability, beneath steep lapse
rates associated with elevated mixed-layer air.

Otherwise, southeasterly near surface winds continue to focus
low-level convergence west of the lower Rio Grande River.  It
appears that a pair of discrete supercells, which initiated off the
higher terrain to the southwest of Del Rio, will maintain a
rightward propagation (with respect to the mean flow and shear) to
the west of the river, unless their cold pools consolidate and
support further upscale growth.

...Kerr.. 05/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-KptfJlnTVWaWxFwj1gQj8Cjp4YC11zju9ct5Zl1Y2zISKOqNe1w5vuQJYKCBBG3vTLsysF5c=
h1F63LWTKp0hzvqFIk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   29890152 29940049 29309886 28849775 27729785 27249901
            27370118 29890152=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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