Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0659
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 02 2025 22:35:07

ACUS11 KWNS 022235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022234=20
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-030030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0659
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Areas affected...Central Alabama to far northwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 214...216...

Valid 022234Z - 030030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 214, 216
continues.

SUMMARY...A squall line moving east across central/northern Alabama
and into far northwest Georgia will continue to pose a damaging wind
threat through the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics show the development of a
consolidated squall line extending from northeast to central AL.
Local reflectivity and velocity data show segments of the line are
struggling to maintain a balanced updraft/downdraft convergence zone
- likely the result of weak low/mid-level shear as sampled by the
KBMX VWP - but other segments show strong low-level velocities. The
KHTX VWP recently sampled 35-50 mph winds within the lowest 1-2 km
associated with the passage of the line, and surface observations
have also recently sampled gusts between 35-40 mph. Downstream of
the line, low-level lapse rates remain near 8-8.5 C/km, which will
continue to facilitate efficient downward momentum transfer of the
stronger low-level winds. Additionally, the line is migrating into
the apex of a buoyancy ridge draped across AL with MLCAPE values
upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg. As such, the potential for damaging winds
should persist for the next few hours as the squall line progresses
east - especially where balanced updraft/downdraft convergence zones
can be maintained. In the absence of a stronger kinematic
environment, the onset of nocturnal cooling after 00/01 UTC should
result in increasing inhibition and modulate the wind threat heading
into the late evening hours.

...Moore.. 05/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-LjspjyxBQSwrBW5nPwxM1nEHqlW4aK4r1GVPOmFjL9bpBv18lELFNuSwP-WtOuArt1V2Vucq=
TK0CQfXaPYU4qh0zWc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   32548819 33288749 34048671 34678616 34938579 35018524
            34968482 34758460 34428464 33908499 33518540 33048586
            32778623 32558662 32418698 32368724 32338764 32368795
            32428813 32548819=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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