Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0656
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 02 2025 20:45:55

ACUS11 KWNS 022044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022044=20
TXZ000-022215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern...central...and eastern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212...215...

Valid 022044Z - 022215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212, 215
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 212 and 215. Large hail is the main threat, though damaging
gusts and a tornado remain possible.

DISCUSSION...Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are
underway, and are expected to persist through the remainder of the
afternoon across southern into central and eastern TX. Ahead of the
cold front, quasi-linear multicellular convection persists across
central TX, where marginal severe hail has been reported. Surface
temperatures ahead of these storms are in the 80s F, with low 70s F
dewpoints, supporting 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and a continued marginal
severe hail threat.=20

To the south of the central TX storms, supercells continue to
fluctuate in strength along a baroclinic boundary. These storms have
produced occasional instances of marginal severe hail and brief
bouts of low-level rotation. Given ample buoyancy with these storms,
periodic occurrences of large hail and low-level rotation should
continue through the afternoon. Once storms to the north encounter
the ongoing supercells, a few severe gusts could occur given cold
pool mergers.=20

Perhaps the greatest threat for severe storms may materialize east
of the Big Bend, over the Edwards Plateau. Here, undisturbed
insolation has persisted the longest, resulting in over 4000 J/kg
MLCAPE amid 45 kts of effective bulk shear. Supercells that develop
in this environment could pose the greatest risk for 2+ inch
diameter hail and perhaps a tornado, as also suggested by some of
the latest Warn-on-Forecast output.

...Squitieri.. 05/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5_RcpemvGDEqigsq-DYi81ioLUoPCQysRYs3W81QDlDfXtVUWRbUJeerJD5T1djSAUTbwIKPh=
36wS26OZVPYM2GNpSw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29790178 30770011 31569759 31599588 31239487 30539465
            30159463 29789512 29499603 29269670 28829772 28689858
            28499940 28430012 28450040 28900073 29390119 29630144
            29790178=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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