Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0652
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 02 2025 19:02:35

ACUS11 KWNS 021859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021858=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-022100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0652
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Areas affected...central/eastern OH and western PA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210...

Valid 021858Z - 022100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated quarter to half-dollar size hail along with
localized strong gusts to around 60 mph should persist into early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Deeper convective cores have persisted just ahead of a
weak cold front lagging in western OH. Numerous, but shallower
updrafts, are present farther east-southeast in southern OH to
western PA, where large-scale ascent is weaker. Area VWP data
depicts nearly unidirectional southwesterly flow across the region,
stronger closer to Lake Erie and diminishing south towards the OH
River. Sporadic small to marginally severe hail should remain the
overarching threat, but an increase in localized damaging winds may
occur towards early evening as cells loosely consolidate and weaken.

...Grams.. 05/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6n24LYjF2lvRsOl5byg6JG3JdkFg9vxR-HQ-6Tly_zTLVt4CGxfgtfnyhY8397zTYo_rCzT5z=
mcm_wpA_sxoU9qa9-M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   41588141 41688054 41878002 41927964 41937951 41637921
            41227914 40987917 40787933 40218043 39548170 39238222
            39048274 39098329 39838302 40638247 41328186 41588141=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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