Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0649
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 02 2025 18:05:17

ACUS11 KWNS 021803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021802=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-022000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0649
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Areas affected...TN to OH Valleys

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209...213...

Valid 021802Z - 022000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209, 213
continues.

SUMMARY...Sporadic large hail and damaging winds will persist
through late afternoon across a broad swath from the Tennessee to
the Ohio Valleys. Damaging wind potential may be greater across the
Kentucky portion in the near-term and in middle to eastern Tennessee
later.

DISCUSSION...A messy overall convective mode has persisted with
several convective bands and discrete cells across a broad swath of
the Deep to Mid-South. Low-level flow has been weak to modest across
much of these regions, with nearly unidirectional moderate mid-level
west-southwesterlies. One exception has been with the northern
portion of the band in western KY where HPX VWP data sampled a 40-45
kt rear-inflow jet. Southern activity should be dominated by
sporadic large hail potential in the near-term, before greater
amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs. This should
support increasing wind potential south of KY by late afternoon.

...Grams.. 05/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9T01-YYdxeQ0Ub1m6JWdicyZTJAhWaD0tBWTVNwtGoHiRyCtkRMzDTU1vWp-yJRrMvLY67iG2=
gsL_fbMYHBrNuvKJ84$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
PAH...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   35518433 34318518 33898643 33628760 33688842 34598834
            35558737 36568707 37588733 38108705 38608573 38548480
            38368410 38028353 35518433=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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