Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0647
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 02 2025 16:06:06

ACUS11 KWNS 021605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021605=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-021800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0647
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Areas affected...central into eastern Texas and far western
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 021605Z - 021800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase into the afternoon hours
as storms develop and become more widespread. The stronger storms
may produce severe hail/wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes cannot
be ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed
over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A convective outflow boundary from earlier storms
continues to slowly drift southward across central TX into LA, with
clearing and insolation contributing to continued boundary-layer
destabilization on both sides of the boundary. While strong storms
may develop from re-intensifying convection across northern TX, the
most likely location for the development of robust severe storms
will be along the outflow boundary, as well as with convection that
has already initiated in the warm sector across southeast TX. 7-8
C/km mid-level lapse rates are overspreading a moist boundary layer,
characterized by 70+ F surface dewpoints, contributing to 3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE. As the mid-level trough over the Plains states undergoes
amplification this afternoon, and is overspread by 80+ kts of 300 mb
westerly flow from an approaching sub-tropical jet stream,
deep-layer shear should increase, supporting well over 40 kts of
effective bulk shear. When considering the strong instability in
place, several supercells should develop, accompanied by a severe
wind and hail threat. Multiple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail
are possible given the expected increase of strong mid to
upper-level shear, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out,
especially with any dominant supercell structures interacting with
mesoscale boundaries. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed in
the next few hours to address the impending severe threat.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7BQiwjoCbslpykoIGeHjKvxIGivIY3tvAdEjHIx4sjxmvZgqf8U7DdKQkI1gKBdDc-fphIEKi=
3ePAdg3dyZcQ84EvYk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29620146 31049884 32129670 32819462 32859403 32579359
            32329347 31499349 30679358 30079390 29669431 29509474
            29169621 28769789 28639937 28620012 28690048 28870068
            29110088 29300115 29620146=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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