Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0646
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 02 2025 16:04:15

ACUS11 KWNS 021603
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021603=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-021800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0646
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Areas affected...north GA through the western Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021603Z - 021800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe
hail will be possible through this afternoon. While a severe
thunderstorm watch issuance is not anticipated, we'll be monitoring
for greater severe-storm coverage/organization.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development appears to be
underway across north GA into far western SC, with more isolated
development into western NC. The air mass across GA is moderately
unstable with weaker buoyancy northeastward. Deep-layer shear is
lacking though with decidedly veered and weak lower-level winds per
FFC/GSP VWP data. This is expected to remain largely steady-state
through the afternoon. Adequate mid-level westerlies should exist
for some small to marginally severe hail cores. This would enhance
microburst potential and attendant threat for localized wind damage.

...Grams/Hart.. 05/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7KLLDhp-Z8sYFOQGBfQg28pPqwcSW304Hoeh9ImOpFKXvb_MZ6bJWDEVotmoU6j89ynClprBs=
3s3kmkAHvLqQzgWZS4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   34988433 35248276 36338129 36698033 36487926 35508015
            34628106 33778212 33568325 33578402 33648459 34018465
            34988433=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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