Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0644
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 02 2025 14:40:28

ACUS11 KWNS 021439
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021439=20
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-021645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0644
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 021439Z - 021645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing severe-thunderstorm threat is expected into
the afternoon as storms develop/intensify over eastern Arkansas and
northern Louisiana across central to northern Mississippi. Damaging
winds should be the main hazard.

DISCUSSION...An MCV over central AR will likely drive primary
severe-thunderstorm potential across a portion of the Lower MS
Valley and Mid-South into the afternoon. Large-scale convective
outflow arcs from this MCV across southeast AR and northwest LA,
where incipient storm development is underway. With moderate
boundary-layer heating of the richly moist air mass ahead of this
outflow, moderately large buoyancy is expected. Primary mid-level
flow enhancement attendant to the MCV may remain confined north of
convective outflows, it will still be sufficient for organized
clustering/potential bowing structures along the northern end of the
surface-based instability plume. Damaging winds are likely to be the
primary overall hazard in this setup.

...Grams/Hart.. 05/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-mWVXZ6wvhjFMhHgrRaTJilzIs-u6It5eYefqa3dUfgfxUiZae9f551KkYhDs-8-GJayDU9YT=
OctdF6VtWl1ba64bsM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34949219 35319151 35509026 35378940 35108852 34398827
            33608829 33148845 32618913 32259017 32179156 32199262
            32369355 33309268 34949219=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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