Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 02 2025 08:47:32

ACUS48 KWNS 020845
SWOD48
SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Day 4/Monday - Southern High Plains...
Lee cyclogenesis will strengthen on Monday in the southern High
Plains as a mid-level trough advects eastward. As this occurs, rich
low-level moisture will advect into West Texas which will result in
strong instability as temperatures continue to cool aloft. Expect
scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline during the
afternoon/evening. However, more widespread storm development is
likely after 00Z as the low-level jet strengthens across West Texas.
Initial supercells will have a threat for all severe weather hazards
before eventual upscale growth into a MCS likely results in a
greater severe wind threat.

....Day 5/Tuesday - Central/East Texas into Louisiana...
Day 4 thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
period along a frontal zone across central/East Texas and persist
eastward through the day. Destabilization remains questionable as
strong high pressure and the low-latitude nature of the mid-level
trough may limit northward movement of the warm front. The potential
for this front to be stationary, in addition to widespread
convection/cloud cover concerns along the front, preclude severe
weather probabilities at this time. However, there will likely be a
corridor along the frontal zone with some greater severe weather
threat which may become more clear as the event draws closer.

Additional severe storms will be possible Day 6 and 7 along the
frontal zone/composite outflow in Texas, but the location of this
feature and degree of destabilization along it will be highly
dependent on prior days convective activity. For these reasons, no
probabilities have been added at this time.

...Bentley.. 05/02/2025

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