Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 02 2025 05:42:58 ACUS01 KWNS 020541 SWODY1 SPC AC 020539 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NWRN GA...NRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN AR...NRN AND CNTRL LA...CNTRL AND ERN TX... ....SUMMARY... Widespread strong thunderstorm development, potentially including several organizing clusters, appears likely in a corridor across parts of central and eastern Texas, through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, into the Cumberland Plateau by this evening. These may be accompanied by a risk for large hail, initially, before widespread strong to severe gusts becomes more common. ....Discussion... Although a mid/upper high may be attempting to form east of the Cascades, within large-scale riding shifting inland of the Pacific coast, models suggest that this will be short-lived. And it appears that the ridging will slowly continue eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies through this period, as one upstream short wave trough pivots northward across British Columbia, and another digs toward the northern Pacific coast. Downstream, a significant short wave trough, currently digging to the lee of the northern Rockies, is forecast to continue across the central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z Saturday. It still appears that the trough over the Great Plains will be preceded by a convectively augmented short wave perturbation, just now beginning to evolve across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity, and forecast to accelerate north-northeastward through the Ohio Valley later today and tonight. Trailing this feature, a front, probably reinforced by considerable outflow from overnight convection, is forecast to advance south/southeast of the Red River and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z this morning. Ahead of this front, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will become characterized by sizable CAPE, with insolation beneath initially steep mid-level lapse rates, across much of central and southern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. By late afternoon, low-level moisture advection may contribute to similar destabilization in a corridor across the Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians. ....Southern Great Plains into western slopes of Appalachians... While it is possible that one more prominent surface frontal wave may eventually form across parts of the Mid South into lower Ohio Valley late today into tonight, it appears that this may remain relatively weak, and the surface front may tend to advance south of the stronger mid-level westerlies. However, models indicate that the environment within the developing instability axis will become at least modestly sheared, as broadly difluent mid/upper flow downstream of the digging trough supports increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development by midday. This may include re-intensification of overnight storms across the Mid South into Ohio Valley, and the initiation of additional storms southwestward across central Texas. There is a considerable signal in model output that convection will become widespread, with potential for the evolution of at least a couple of notable organizing storm clusters. Initial thunderstorm development may be accompanied by the risk for large hail, particularly across central Texas, but perhaps also across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Thereafter, precipitation loading, evaporative cooling and melting may contribute to strong downbursts, before convectively generated surface cold pools consolidate and strengthen, accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe gusts as convection spreads eastward and southeastward into this evening. ...Kerr/Moore.. 05/02/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .