Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 02 2025 03:02:15 AWUS01 KWNH 020301 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-020900- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0208 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 PM EDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...Central & Southern OK...Adj. TX Panhandle and Northwest/Northern TX... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 020300Z - 020900Z SUMMARY...Another round of thunderstorms crossing highly saturated soil conditions likely to result in scattered flash flooding conditions overnight. DISCUSSION...A subtle fast moving shortwave enhanced/maintained by right entrance jet max across southern KS is providing solid DPVA to develop a bowed band of elevated convection racing across the northern Texas Panhandle. The overall height-falls from the larger scale digging trough seen well in GOES-E WV across the northern Central Plains has resulted in rapidly responding LLJ across central and eastern TX as VWP has increased to near 50kts at DYX and are starting to reach the 30kts at FDR with CIRA LPW showing rapid of the SFC-850mb dry slot (with Tds now in the 60s and even low 70s) across north-central TX and EML noted in 850-700mb is reducing/retreating to the west in CIRA LPW. This increasing moisture flux at the surface still remains easterly in nature, but slow veering is expected through the boundary layer in the next few hours. This will start to ascend across a well defined deep layer isentropic boundary that bisects OK from near the MO/AR intersection south of OKC/Norman toward LTS and through the northern Cap Rock from CDS to PVW. While the dry air is helping lapse rates and instability profiles initially, the increasing moisture flux from the south will eventually increase rainfall potential after 07-08z. However, initial thunderstorms, even elevated along the front will have sufficient low level flux to support 1-1.5"/hr rates in proximity to the boundary. Deep layer steering should allow for some training/repeating to further enhance rainfall totals before rainfall rates/efficiency is expected to increase later.=20 Normally, 1.5-3" totals would be fine, especially in the expected faster moving environment; however, upper soil conditions remain highly saturated with 0-40cm ration of 70-75% across much of OK and Northwest to Northeast TX which is near record values as NASA SPoRT percentiles are in the 98th+ percentile across a vast area, with active flooding along many rivers including the Red River and nearby tributaries. As such, even though FFG values have "rebounded" to 1.5"/hr or 2-2.5"/3hrs, the probability of infiltration is very low and nearly all rainfall will be runoff and as such, near convective cores, scattered incidents of flash flooding are considered likely through the overnight period. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9WqZlIY8Blz7NMYSpgkVKo_JrAfbMlEmBmZRzcZ3xesDZYKL8-95bY3h8EA1woY1qK9P= nV4KmHBzQzgnuTUB_w2ZTrY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36439613 36209503 35409444 34979458 34139565=20 33859740 33859965 34210068 35660041 36029814=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .