Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0641
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 02 2025 02:18:21

ACUS11 KWNS 020214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020214=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-020345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0641
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0914 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Areas affected...Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 020214Z - 020345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued for much
of Oklahoma. Hail and wind are possible with overnight convection.

DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is digging southeast
across the High Plains, currently extending from western KS into the
western TX Panhandle. A loosely organized band of thunderstorms has
developed ahead of this feature and should continue propagating
toward western OK over the next few hours. Additionally, surface
boundary has sharpened a bit downstream, extending from near
TUL-southern McClain County-near Lawton. As 1km flow increases into
this frontal corridor later this evening it appears this boundary
may encourage robust thunderstorm development. Most high-res models
favor some version of this scenario, and strong shear will prove
beneficial in potential organization. Hail and damaging winds are
the primary concern and a severe thunderstorm watch appears
warranted.

...Darrow/Smith.. 05/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7cdpJ4K_cybZ7wF7CTNVmHFbVITCaMop5SGD9-osOi_0FmS7rDHLUpF23ChVc5dsCYxmnPzEG=
BZwxJicclma7XQPhlI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36289967 35999531 33969511 34259990 36289967=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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