Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0637
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 01 2025 22:48:56

ACUS11 KWNS 012248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012248=20
TXZ000-020015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0637
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Southwest into Central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204...205...

Valid 012248Z - 020015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204, 205
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered slow-moving severe thunderstorms will continue
into the early-evening hours. Hail is the primary concern.

DISCUSSION...Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms continue within a
very high-instability air mass from the international border over
southeast Terrell County to Leon County. Wind profiles favor storm
splits and latest radar data supports this with several left-movers
advancing north of the watch at times. Even so, the primary concern
this evening will be for the east-west corridor to gradually sag
south as the dominant updrafts should tend to drift more southerly.
MRMS data suggests large, to very large hail is common with this
activity.

...Darrow.. 05/01/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-CAhvg_3BfbnI3R4CALS0019vwgNojyGxeUNVXHuIPkKLTK5rS39OOUR3-HbfIAbyPGrONdjf=
387fB_gGCXmhwwRU-E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30330191 30590001 31139804 31489585 30389610 30039815
            28770141 30330191=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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