Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 01 2025 21:53:30 AWUS01 KWNH 012153 FFGMPD TXZ000-020351- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0205 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 553 PM EDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...portions of southwest into central Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 012151Z - 020351Z Summary...Isolated, slow-moving thunderstorms are capable of local 2-3 inch/hr rain rates, which could result in a few areas of flash flooding. Later this evening, a complex emanating from near the Rio Grande should also foster an isolated flash flood risk. Discussion...In the past hour or so, explosive thunderstorm development has occurred on an isolated basis along an axis from near Killeen, TX west-southwestward to near Del Rio. The updrafts are breaching the cap within a zone of focused convergence along a dryline near that same axis. Although wind fields aloft are westerly at around 20-35 knots, cells have exhibited slow right-moving, supercellular tendencies that have supported local rain rates of 2-3 inches/hr (estimated per MRMS/local radar).=20 These rates are falling in areas of local FFGs in the 1.5-2.5 inch/hr range (lowest near Killeen and surrounding areas that received 2-3 inch rainfall amounts yesterday night), suggestive of isolated flash flood potential near the slowest-moving convection. Ongoing activity is expected to continue to remain isolated and confined to areas near/south of the dryline this evening.=20 Eventually, convection over northern Mexico (southwest of Del Rio) is expected to grow upscale and form an eastward-moving complex that will move through a pool of very strong instability across the discussion area and provide another opportunity for heavy rainfall - especially in western portions of the discussion area (Del Rio to perhaps San Antonio and vicinity late). Totals could be locally higher where cell mergers occur. The ongoing scenario supports at least an isolated flash flood threat across the discussion area thhrough the evening. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!75_ZViJMHzk25RmhjBbfsxXiOCCgIpWakpSNFuErSxeYpogwQW7Cfzgg6Vl7I9cHpxl8= OJxA3ydtFtRx3_Fo1PnnmLI$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...MAF...SHV...SJT... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31979462 31529426 30799497 29709757 28689999=20 29010078 29370133 29810215 30250135 31519920=20 31959700=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .