Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0634
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 01 2025 20:23:27

ACUS11 KWNS 012023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012022=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-012145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Areas affected...western MD/eastern WV Panhandles into south-central
PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 012022Z - 012145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A single, slow-moving supercell may persist for the next
couple hours with a threat of large hail and localized damaging
winds. Confidence is low in greater coverage/longevity for a
potential severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...A supercell centered on Allegany County, MD has had the
most impressive observational structure per radar/satellite trends,
relative to other severe storms in the Upper OH Valley/Lower Great
Lakes region. This cell appears to be anchored near a slow-moving
warm front, likely ingesting a mesoscale ribbon of mid 60s surface
dew points southeastward along the WV/VA/MD border area. Given the
relatively confined region of this enhancement, with a substantially
drier air mass both to the northeast and south, the longevity of a
sustained supercell structure is questionable. However, it is
plausible that a localized severe hail/wind threat may continue for
the next couple hours.

...Grams/Hart.. 05/01/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8nrGw5Vox67SgzcM9oEI_uoDPgCt--9Ap_T3c1DdTwq--ZcavmhR3a3i4498awsct7ssvjbJl=
zChwRK_V_Ltji2lhyI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40187889 40417839 40357799 40057745 39807752 39557809
            39517888 39707911 40187889=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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