Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0628
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 01 2025 00:19:49

ACUS11 KWNS 010019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010019=20
TXZ000-010145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0628
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Areas affected...Parts of east Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 198...

Valid 010019Z - 010145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 198 continues.

SUMMARY...Risk of severe hail persists across parts of east Texas --
within WW198.

DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms have been confined to the north of
an outflow-reinforced cold front across east TX -- where steep
midlevel lapse rates/ample elevated instability and 50 kt of
effective shear is favoring a severe hail risk. Over the next few
hours, the front may move slowly southward, though it is unclear if
storms will become surface-based. Nevertheless, a severe hail risk
should persist for another couple hours, and either an extension of
the current watch or an additional watch (Severe Thunderstorm) would
be warranted.

...Weinman/Smith.. 05/01/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6XzBTrCaCF0xwDDZiZTFfezbQ3dPyfPS3VjNvVZNW8MNH3O1a3afzn0U7m4TIgFFd1Rhy32vz=
G1phtUp-onum4Ot_fs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   31209766 31499746 31859667 32179524 32069486 31709473
            31339512 30719655 30659715 30849759 31209766=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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