Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0624
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 30 2025 22:34:08

ACUS11 KWNS 302232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302231=20
TXZ000-010000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0624
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Areas affected...Parts of south Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 302231Z - 010000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail and wind risk will persist for
another couple hours. Current thinking is that the overall severe
risk will remain too isolated for a watch.

DISCUSSION...An isolated/discrete supercell has developed within a
warm, moist, and uncapped environment across south TX. Given weak
forcing for ascent, overall storm coverage is expected to remain
isolated. However, around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE and an elongated/straight
hodograph (sampled by EWX VWP) will continue to support an isolated
supercell or two -- capable of producing severe hail and locally
damaging gusts. This threat should persist for another couple hours,
before the boundary layer nocturnally stabilizes. Given the isolated
nature of the threat, a watch is not expected.

...Weinman/Smith.. 04/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9IIOIfA8ankf8IEBzXE9SzlIorPWB0Tw9U8bkf9b3k-uOrRox51BTwP5Ac5dxcOaYUVT-j_aA=
WAXWMwU8nTBgJmrbpA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28169854 28399911 28809920 29279902 29679854 29929798
            29879753 29299736 28419790 28169854=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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