Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 30 2025 17:27:48 ACUS02 KWNS 301727 SWODY2 SPC AC 301726 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ....Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ....Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ...Goss.. 04/30/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .