Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 30 2025 16:27:48 ACUS01 KWNS 301626 SWODY1 SPC AC 301625 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ....Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ....Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ....West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ...Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .