Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 30 2025 14:02:37 AWUS01 KWNH 301402 FFGMPD ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-302000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0202 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1000 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...Central and Northern TX...Eastern OK...Far Western AR Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 301400Z - 302000Z SUMMARY...Very heavy showers and thunderstorms will be impacting much of central and northern TX and into portions of eastern OK and far western AR going through the mid-afternoon hours. Areas of significant and life-threatening flash flooding are expected which will include a notable urban flash flood threat to multiple metropolitan areas including Dallas-Fort Worth and adjacent suburbia. DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction with dual-pol radar shows an elongated axis of very heavy shower and thunderstorm activity focused across areas of central and northern TX and extending well into areas of southern and eastern OK. The convection is well organized and generally focused along a quasi-stationary front with multiple waves of low pressure riding east-northeast along it. A look at the latest RAP analysis shows MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg already pooled up along the front, with an increasingly moist warm-sector airmass continuing to advance north into the boundary with aid from a southerly low-level jet of 40 to 45+ kts. 3-hour MLCAPE differentials of +400 to +600 are already noted along an axis from central TX to southeast OK along the corridor of more convergent and moist low-level flow, and the combination of higher surface dewpoints and diurnal heating will favor a steady increase in instability over the next several hours. The southern flank of the convective axis in particular from central to northeast TX is expected to be particularly potent with very high rainfall rate potential going forward as a combination of strengthening thermodynamics and rather strong low to mid-level shear (0-3 km bulk shear of 40 to 45 kts) favor enhanced/efficient updrafts with substantial moisture convergence/water-loading through the cloud-bearing layer. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour are likely in these areas. Areas from especially the Mineral Wells to Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan corridor along with the adjacent suburbs of northern TX (including the Denton to Sherman corridor) are expected to see some of the heaviest rainfall rates and totals going through mid-afternoon with as much as 3 to 5+ inches of rain possible where localized corridors of cell-training occurs. However, areas farther north into eastern OK are expected to see additional heavy rainfall as a strong upstream MCV approaches and interacts with the pooling of moisture/instability surging up across southeast OK in close proximity to the aforementioned front. Areas from Durant through McAlester and the Stigler vicinity will likely see additional heavy rainfall totals of as much as 2 to 4+ inches through this nowcast period. Areas of significant and life-threatening flash flooding are expected going through the mid-afternoon hours, and this will include notable urban flash flooding concerns given the high rainfall rate potential along with locally sensitive antecedent conditions. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5arosPIwo0JxCv4WSt4E3f2qT0ZCm2ioDwv5j60E1Q2YrS4EHbMobOzJ1jfgWTuz5WbC= jJkWCcjG6aqQAOhgXE_YCOc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...LZK...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36609514 36199387 33929391 32249596 31619879=20 31840029 32580048 33959863 35529709=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .